President Biden’s potential re-election in 2024 appears uncertain due to the formidable challenge of defeating former President Donald Trump. The prevailing pessimistic sentiment within the country poses a significant obstacle in winning over dissatisfied voters. President Biden must adopt a more assertive approach in refocusing the campaign as a referendum on Trump. Recent indications of progress notwithstanding, there have been noted delays in expanding the campaign’s field operations, partly due to President Biden’s preference for relying on a select group of advisors centered in the West Wing. Without substantial improvement, there is a risk that Trump could dominate the seven key battleground states in November, six of which Biden had secured in 2020.
Recent data shows President Biden’s approval ratings have declined to the high 30s, marking a substantial drop. He has consistently trailed or tied with Trump in head-to-head matchups for several months. Voter concerns regarding his policies, leadership, age, and competency have been echoed. Furthermore, the coalition that propelled Biden to victory in 2020 has fractured, with the Democrats’ historical advantage among Black, Latino, and Asian American voters reaching lows unseen since the civil rights movement. Despite challenges such as an attempted insurrection and numerous indictments, Trump’s current position appears more robust than in his previous presidential campaigns, raising the prospect of a potential win in the White House.
Biden’s inner circle maintains a determinedly positive outlook. They view the candidate as having a solid economy, a significant financial advantage, and a track record of accomplishments in infrastructure, climate change, industrial policy, and consumer protections that they expect will resonate with more voters as the campaign progresses. They notice a pattern of Democrats consistently exceeding their polling expectations in recent years, from the 2022 midterms to various special elections and abortion referendums. Above all, they see their opponent as historically unpopular.
After a slow start, Biden’s campaign is making significant progress, as evidenced by the establishment of field offices, recruitment of personnel, and initiation of an advertising onslaught portraying Trump as a dangerous autocrat. Nevertheless, even if the President’s struggling campaign gains momentum, allies suggest that the nation’s deeply entrenched divisions may limit his ability to influence the outcome in November. Both factions are strengthening their positions for a grim conflict characterized by reduced voter participation and dire warnings about the future that awaits the country should the opposing candidate prevail.
In the 2020 election, Biden secured a significant lead of 24 points over Trump with voters under 30. However, a December New York Times/Siena poll revealed that Biden was trailing Trump by 6 points among the youngest voters, although subsequent polls have shown marginal improvement. Gen Z voters are questioning why they should be expected to vote for a candidate who has taken actions that contradict their values.
The party’s electoral coalition is encountering challenges beyond just the engagement of young voters. As per polling by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University, there has been a decline in Biden’s support among Black voters from 87% in 2020 to 63% presently. Despite previously leading by a 2 to 1 margin among Hispanic voters, he is now behind Trump in this demographic. His stance on Israel during the Gaza conflict has also adversely affected his standing with Muslim and Arab voters, particularly in crucial states like Michigan. Overall, Biden’s lead over Trump among nonwhite Americans has reduced from nearly 50 points in 2020 to 12, based on the latest Times/Siena poll. A former Biden campaign and White House official, speaking anonymously, expressed deep dissatisfaction among voters of color and suggested it is highly likely that he will not succeed.
Incumbent Presidents usually have strong re-election prospects, particularly when presiding over a strong economy, as with President Biden. His administration has achieved significant milestones, including the bipartisan infrastructure bill, substantial investments in combating climate change, forgiving billions of dollars in student debt, reducing drug expenses, enacting bipartisan gun control measures, and more. Some supporters believe that the discrepancy between the President’s performance and his political challenges can be attributed to the shortcomings of his White House and campaign team in effectively communicating his achievements.
In Arizona, a crucial battleground state, the CHIPS Act, a historic legislation signed by President Biden to invest over $52 billion in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing, has led to the construction of two major semiconductor plants. Intel and Taiwan’s TSMC have announced plans to create thousands of local tech and construction jobs. According to exclusive polling from Noble Predictive Insights, only 25% of Arizona voters credit Biden for establishing these new plants, while 29% credit the companies. Uncertainty about responsibility is expressed by 34% of respondents. As per the Greater Phoenix Economic Council, the investments are estimated to enhance the regional economic output by billions significantly.
Biden’s achievements have not been fully acknowledged because his communication style has been described as “academic” by Representative Bennie Thompson, a Democrat from Mississippi who chaired the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Thompson pointed out that much of what has been communicated may be too complex for the average American citizen to grasp. He emphasized the need for a clear and straightforward message from Biden.
According to a Democratic consultant in the 2004 Kerry campaign, “bigger is not always better” applies to evaluating Biden’s defense. The consultant noted that the 2004 Kerry campaign operated on a principle of having two of everything and drawing a parallel; Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign had approximately 800 staffers, along with support from thousands more within state parties. This significant administrative burden led Clinton and her inner circle to focus on courting donors rather than engaging with voters in crucial states. Biden’s decision to appoint Julie Chavez Rodriguez, a White House senior adviser with no prior experience managing a statewide race, as campaign manager, along with the delayed reassignment of top aides Jen O’Malley Dillon and Mike Donilon from the White House to the campaign, has raised concerns among prominent Democrats. Biden’s communication and campaign operations need to be more effective in conveying his message and engaging with voters, as highlighted by Representative Thompson and senior Democratic sources.
The current presidential campaign has made significant strides in establishing a robust presence in pivotal battleground states. For instance, in Georgia, where Biden secured victory by a slim margin of fewer than 12,000 votes in 2020, the campaign has deployed a single staff member. Similarly, in North Carolina, where Biden fell short by around 75,000 votes in the previous election, presenting a potential opportunity, only three staff members have been hired. Some supporters believe that the ongoing race is winnable but faces the risk of losing its potential.
A seasoned Democratic consultant who has previously advised presidential nominees expressed frustration, stressing the importance of seeking advice from prominent figures such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer to develop adequate staffing and strategies for winning those states. The sentiment is shared by numerous Democratic strategists, who perceive Biden as constrained by past approaches and inclined to reenact a previously successful strategy that may no longer be suitable.
Biden’s campaign financially strong, emphasizing its significant $155 million war chest compared to the reported approximately $40 million held by Trump’s team in January. Furthermore, the campaign plans to launch a six-week, $30 million barrage of TV advertisements in battleground states, aiming to portray Trump as a threat to democracy and reproductive rights while delicately addressing the issue of Biden’s age. The campaign also intends to inaugurate 100 campaign offices in states such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to establish a strong ground game in all battleground states.
Several external organizations provide significant financial support and influential endorsements to the Biden campaign. For example, the United Auto Workers, with a membership of 400,000, along with 18 other labor unions, have endorsed Biden. Additionally, political action committees representing Asian American, Black, and Latino voters, such as the AAPI Victory Fund, The Collective, and the Latino Victory Fund, have pledged $30 million to boost voter turnout for Biden. Furthermore, Future Forward, a pro-Biden super PAC, has allocated a record-breaking $250 million for fall advertising in seven crucial states.
The campaign is also actively recruiting thousands of volunteers to engage with voters in local communities. This initiative, commencing in March and continuing throughout the summer, will shift its focus to mobilizing supporters to the polls by September, employing tactics such as door-to-door canvassing and targeted social media outreach. The campaign has decided to reallocate advertising funds from traditional broadcast channels to digital platforms, including YouTube, Google search, Facebook, and online sports-streaming sites.
When assessing President Biden’s performance with young and nonwhite voters, the Biden brain trust acknowledges the challenges but does not share the panic of the party leadership. They believe voters who supported Biden can be convinced to do so again. The campaign has taken proactive steps to reach out to young and nonwhite voters earlier than any previous presidential campaign, as senior adviser Becca Siegel stated. Internal polling suggests that these demographics have not fully engaged with the election and have not been considering Trump recently. As part of their strategy, Biden’s team aims to engage different voting blocs uniquely. For instance, in Georgia, the campaign intends to leverage surrogates like Senator Raphael Warnock, who delivers sermons from Martin Luther King Jr.’s former pulpit, to increase turnout among Black voters.
Despite some criticism of Biden from voters of color, organizers anticipate that Black voters, in particular, will continue to support the President. They point out that although Black voters have not always been enthusiastic about Biden, they have demonstrated pragmatic decision-making in their political choices. These efforts highlight the campaign’s acknowledgment of the need for targeted strategies to appeal to diverse voter blocs.
Central to the argument against Trump are the perceived risks he poses to democracy and reproductive rights. Democrats are leveraging the stricter abortion laws implemented by 21 states following the Dobbs decision by the Supreme Court, compared to those under Roe v. Wade, to criticize Trump’s stance on abortion access and raise concerns about access to in vitro fertilization following a ruling by the Alabama Supreme Court. These efforts mainly target women. The Democrats plan to persist in linking unpopular abortion restrictions to the GOP, as illustrated by a January ad featuring a Texas doctor who had to leave the state to terminate a nonviable pregnancy. Furthermore, Vice President Harris made history in March by becoming the first sitting Vice President to visit an abortion clinic.
The electoral campaign is currently strategically analyzing various pathways to secure 270 Electoral College votes for victory. One proposed strategy involves the reconstruction of the Blue Wall, which encompasses the historically Democratic strongholds of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while also targeting an additional swing state. Alternatively, another approach navigates through the Sun Belt, specifically targeting Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Democrats are advocating for the inclusion of an abortion-access proposition on the Arizona ballot to boost voter turnout in favor of Biden. A similar effect may be anticipated due to a controversial GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina.
Confident Democrats are hesitant to abandon the possibility of Biden making Trump’s current home state, Florida, attainable. The diverse pathways to victory are significant enough that a prominent Democratic PAC is investing almost $4 million in the Omaha TV ad market, where Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff hosted political events in March. This investment is made to secure a single Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s Second District. Despite their thorough planning, Biden’s team knows that factors beyond their control could influence the race’s outcome.
Allies are expressing optimism for a more assertive performance from the President himself. At 81 years old, President Biden holds the title of the oldest commander-in-chief in U.S. history. It is widely known that doubts exist across many parts of the country regarding his ability to carry out the duties of his office. The White House has made extensive efforts to shield him, going to an excessive extent. Staff members avoid scheduling events in the early hours and evenings, restrict his interviews and press conferences, and have him use shorter sets of stairs when boarding Air Force One to avoid any further embarrassing incidents resulting from his rigid movements. However, to surpass the 77-year-old Trump, some allies believe it is time to discard the protective measures.
