The contents of the campaign and foreign policy during former President Trump’s years in office suggest that his re-election would likely result in a reduction of the U.S. role as a global security umbrella and an increase in shared responsibilities among allied nations. Accordingly, U.S. allies and partners are contemplating how to Trump-proof themselves. However, will Trump, who disregards alliances and underestimates the connection between the security of the U.S. and global security, really be elected? Let us look at the odds and the latest polls first.
The United States Presidential Election Odds for 2024
NAME ODDS PROBABILITY
Donald Trump +100 50%
Joe Biden +117 46%
Robert Kennedy Jr. +1567 6%
The latest poll results of May show Biden at 38%, Trump 43% and Kennedy 9%
Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning
The current opinion polls support the expectation that Trump will likely be chosen as the next President of the United States. According to a CNN opinion poll conducted among registered voters in early February, 49% of respondents said they would vote for Trump, compared to 45% who chose Biden, showing a 4%p lead for Trump. Moreover, Biden’s physical and mental fitness could be a game-changer that would benefit Trump as well.
Additionally, the economy is traditionally the most critical issue determining voters’ preferences in U.S. presidential elections. The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas war, coupled with the ongoing economic downturn in the United States, would work favorably for Trump. It is difficult to deny that the current situation favors Trump, considering the backdrop of Obama’s victory over John McCain, who had the most significant margin in history in the 2008 presidential election. This victory was fueled by voter criticism of the worsening economic indicators under the Bush administration and the prolonged Iraq war.
However, the revised election laws seem to provide a huge advantage for Trump. In the United States, election laws are determined by state legislatures. However, recently, states expected to serve as battlegrounds in the 2024 presidential election have strengthened regulations regarding identification and vote-by-mail processes. For example, Georgia, a swing state in the presidential election, decided not to permit mail-in voting, which processes all the procedures electronically for the 2024 presidential election instead of 2022.
Regarding North Carolina, another swing state, while photo identification for mail-in voting was not mandatory in the 2020 election, it will be required for the upcoming election. In the United States, where activities such as taking photographs, obtaining and maintaining identification cards, and visiting polling stations are not as simple and easy as they are in Korea, such changes could pose significant challenges to voter turnout, particularly among the main support base of the Democratic Party, who are in the low-income group, particularly communities of color where the proportion of low-income individuals is relatively high.
Joe Biden’s Chances of Re-election
The following can be pointed out as positive signals for Biden’s chances of re-election:
1- Voter preference for maintaining the status quo;
2- Potential economic recovery;
3- Temporary escalation or resolution of wars;
4- Legal cases faced by Trump.
It is a well-known fact that voters tend to prefer maintaining somewhat unsatisfactory current conditions over uncertain changes. Moreover, if the outlook of the U.S. economy improves from the second half of the year and a potential decrease in interest rates becomes a reality, it could lead to favorable developments for Biden’s victory. Additionally, it could serve as an opportunity for a turnaround for Biden, who is grappling with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. A prolonged, ‘sluggish’ war tends to act unfavorably to the ruling party and the President during an election. However, the outbreak, temporary escalation, or resolution of wars can stimulate patriotism or be recognized as achievements of the incumbent government, thereby favorably influencing re-election. Therefore, it is difficult to rule out scenarios where the Biden administration seeks to demonstrate America’s position and strength as a global leader and garner national support by temporarily escalating wars or actively ending wars this year because there is quite some time left until Election Day.
Factors that make it difficult to easily anticipate Trump’s re-election include ongoing legal battles surrounding the Jan. 6 riot, sexual harassment, fraud, tampering with and forgery of corporate documents. Some analysts suggest that these legal challenges could instead galvanize Trump supporters. However, over three-quarters of Americans still believe that democracy based on the rule of law and the people’s will is the best form of government and political systems.
It remains uncertain whether these Americans will continue to ignore the true colors of American democracy through Trump’s legal cases during the presidential campaign. Nikki Haley’s emergence supports such predictions. The emergence of Haley indicates significant discontent among Republican supporters towards extreme and exclusive thinking and unethical politicians. Hence, it is difficult to exclude the possibility of these individuals opting for a moderate American-first approach represented by Biden rather than the extreme conservatism of Trump, who may have issues with legal and moral qualifications. Considering the recent close margins of victory in swing states during the last U.S. presidential election, where a 1-2%p difference determined victory, it would be difficult for Trump to secure a win if he neglects the issue of defection of moderate Republican voters.
Trump might not win, but Biden Could Lose.
The Wall Street Journal’s pollsters matched President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the seven key swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Trump is ahead in each of those swing states but Wisconsin, where he and Biden are tied. In swing state polls, the former President has nearly equaled his performance in the 2020 general election. Trump lost every one of these states except for North Carolina, which was achingly close for Democrats. However, he is starting right where he left off.
Here, it is more useful not to use one poll but to turn to averages. In the Decision Desk HQ averages for the seven states, Trump is underperforming his 2020 vote share by 1 point. Biden is lagging by 5.9 points.
For example, in Nevada, Trump enjoys a 3.8-point lead on average: 45.9 percent, compared to Biden’s 42.1 percent. Biden won there in 2020 by 2.4 points, 50.1 percent to Trump’s 47.7 percent. Trump is lagging his past performance by a not insignificant 1.8 points, but Biden is sucking wind with an 8-point underperformance. This suggests not that Trump is taking votes from Biden but that Biden’s 2020 supporters have not returned to him.
The trend holds across the swing states, but the Michigan average is the purest version. Trump currently leads by 4.5 points, 47.2 points to 42.7 points. In 2020, Biden won by 2.3 points, 50.6 points to Trump’s 47.8 points. Trump is only off his 2020 game by a little more than half a point, while Biden is lagging with almost 8 points.
In Georgia, Trump was ahead by 3.8 points and hit his 2020 performance within a tenth of a point, while Biden was 4 points behind his own pace.
In Arizona, Trump leads by 4.2 points but lags behind his 2020 result by 3.9 points, while Biden is 8.4 points in arrears.
North Carolina is much the same: Trump leads by 5.1 points, only 1.1 points off his 2020 showing, while Biden is underperforming by 4.9 points. The same goes for Wisconsin: Trump is up 1.5 points and 3.1 points ahead of his 2020 performance, while Biden is 5.3 points worse off than 2020.
In Pennsylvania, Biden leads by .6 points on average, with 46.5 percent support compared to 45.9 percent for Trump. It is his only lead in any of the averages we have explored. Trump is 2.8 points behind his 2020 performance, while Biden misses by 3.4 points. Biden’s best state is also his least lousy state. It may sound tautological, but it points to a critical dynamic under the surface of this election.
In those Wall Street Journal surveys, pollsters asked respondents to rate the economy’s strength in their state and the nation. Unsurprisingly, voters had miserable things to say about things nationally, but with some crucial differences. The two states with the lowest ratings for “not so good/poor” on the national economy were Wisconsin (57 percent) and Pennsylvania (60 percent). We can safely assume that those states have less economic pessimism than the other five.
This is where the weirdness of a repeat election comes in. If Trump were winning in these states, we would see him over-performing his 2020 numbers as he took votes away from Biden. However, to an uncanny degree, Trump has settled back into his old groove. Nevertheless, we see Biden losing, dramatically underperforming his priors but without the corresponding boost for Trump. These missing Biden voters are floating. The economic numbers in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania suggest that as voter sentiment about the economy improves, Biden may bring a good chunk of those folks back into the fold.
It is tempting to focus on the weaknesses in both candidates’ bases, but as these swing state averages show, Biden’s hopes rest primarily on whether the next few months bring rising hopes about the economy or deepening pessimism. Trump, who has always had a high floor but a low ceiling, looks almost topped out to me. Biden could lose if those swing state voters do not feel the lift, but if they do, the incumbent has the most room to grow.
