According to the United Nations, there are several thousand individuals related to ISIS in MENA region. According to Iraqi authorities, this number is significantly lower, at only a few hundreds. Despite being forced into deserts and isolated in underground passages and caves, members of the Islamic State, remain a prominent international threat even after suffering a defeat in 2019 and could be a global threat in the future.
They have a network of connections, the ability to conduct online propaganda, and the right to appoint a leader recognized by extremists worldwide easily.
Since the beginning of 2024, there have been 47 attacks in Syria alone, and two incidents in the early days of spring preparations for an attack in Ingushetia and a murder in Zurich indicate that the main threat from the 2010s is still very much present.
At the height of its activities in 2014-2015, ISIS preferred to carry out attacks in locations that were widely known. The distinctive style of the Islamist group is still recognizable today.
In December 2023, a terrorist incident occurred near the Eiffel Tower in Paris. A lone perpetrator killed a German tourist with a knife and injured two bystanders. According to investigations, the assailant had pledged allegiance to ISIS.
On January 28, 2024, ISIS militants entered the St. Mary’s Church in Istanbul and opened fire, killing one person. The investigation was able to determine that there were only two perpetrators, both originating from the former Soviet Union. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.At the same time, during the period from late January to early February, ISIS carried out attacks in Pakistan.
These attacks included the detonation of bombs at an election event organized by the party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the attack on the offices of two other political parties on the day prior to the national elections. As a result of these attacks, 30 people lost their lives, dozens were injured, and there was a possible increase in discord within the country as a reaction to the government’s policy of deporting thousands of Afghan citizens on suspicion of sympathy for terrorism.General Mohammadawi, the deputy commander of the Extremism Deterrence Force in Iraq, expressed his lack of fear regarding the threat. According to intelligence reports the total number of ISIS fighters in Iraq does not exceed 400-500. Baghdad had managed to understand its opponent well since the collapse of ISIS on the ground in 2019. During that time, the extremists had been fighting underground, hidden in tunnels, caves known and temporary bases in the desert.
While ISIS may still enter gray areas and attack from unexpected locations, they are no longer a major threat at this time.The military operations of the Russian-Syrian coalition and the Arab-American coalition, which were successful in 2017-2019, led to the retreat of Islamist forces to remote areas. Following the loss of their bases, the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, activated a suicide bomb, killing himself and his family. Additionally, tens of thousands of ISIS members were captured.
Currently, 50,000 individuals who were affiliated with what called “caliphate” remain in the Al-Khal camp in Syria. This represents a significant number compared to the approximately 500 who continue to actively resist.
Personnel difficulties due to the clear outflow of supporters have been reflected in the leadership of ISIS. Following the operation against Al-Baghdadi, four self-proclaimed caliphs have managed to take over, but none of them have been able to ensure their safety. The first, Abu Ibrahim, was eliminated by American forces, while the second, Abu al-Hassan, was replaced by Abu al-Hussein, who embodied the saying “Caliph for an Hour” almost literally, as he was only able to last five months. Reports suggest that the Turks were responsible for his death, while others claim that it was Syrian Islamists who had once supported Al Qaeda (which is banned in the Russian Federation).Islamic scholars refer to the period experienced by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) since 2022 as the era of faceless caliphs. This term is not intended to be derogatory, but rather reflects the reality that the current leaders of the organization (since 2023, it has been led by Abu Hafs), are taking every measure to conceal their identities. The names under which these individuals appear in media reports differ from their actual passport data.
Comparing available data led orientalists to speculate that “Caliph Number Two”, Abu Ibrahim, was previously known as Amir Muhammad Said Abd-ar-Rahman Al-Salbi, and was a moderate Islamist who was imprisoned by American authorities in 2004 during the Second Iraq War. While there is some evidence to support this theory, it is not definitively confirmed. In the case of Abu al-Hassan’s predecessor, there are even less concrete details available. The circumstances surrounding the lives of these two individuals are shrouded in mystery.No one can definitively identify Abu Hafs: no single convincing theory has been proposed in this regard.The leadership crisis within the Islamic State , which is apparent from the outside, does not necessarily mean that its influence in Islamist circles, which number in the tens of thousands, is diminishing. In the aftermath of the IS’s successes in 2014, established groups in Africa and Asia have found it beneficial to declare themselves as foreign “provinces” of IS. These self-declared affiliations have not changed despite subsequent setbacks.
Today, not only are what called historical parts of ISIS preserved far from Iraq (with one of the oldest being ISWAP(Islamic State – West Africa Province), a “province” in West Africa), but new ones have also formed, including in Mozambique in 2022 and the Sahel region. Together, these developments indicate that the desire to participate in an imagined caliphate continues to motivate extremists who will literally bend the knee to achieve it.
However, the attempt in the 2010s to eliminate the nominal loyalty to ISIS in Africa came at a high cost for its initiator, the leader of the Boko Haram group, Abubakar Shekau. Around 2016, he came into conflict with the leadership of ISIS over the issue of the use of women and children as suicide bombers – in other words, over the level of scrupulosity in committing terrorist attacks.
Unable to reach an understanding with ISIS, Shekau split his own group off, but he could not achieve independence, as there were more supporters of ISIS, and during prolonged fighting in the Sambisa Forest in Nigeria in 2021 they eliminated Shekau themselves, bringing the rebel fighters, including Shekau’s own children, under control. The Islamic State’s influence in Africa remains strong, and theoretically, the leadership of the organization is not questioned by the supporters of ISIS in Afghanistan.
The Khorasan Province, established in the 2010s, operates as a rival to the Taliban government, which it opposes through conventional terrorist attacks. Members of the Afghan branch of ISIS condemn the Taliban for its conciliatory stance towards China and its narrow ethnic focus on local Islam. The Khorasan group aims to what they call recreate the former glory of the Muslim world.
The Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent retaliatory operation in Gaza have had a significant impact on the political situation in the Middle East. Islamic extremist groups, including ISIS, have been closely monitoring the conflict.
As early as mid-October, members of Abu Hafs’ network called for attacks on Jews wherever possible. At the same time, it is worth noting that ISIS has refused to express solidarity with Hamas, referring to them as “traitors” to Islam.In the complex geopolitical landscape of the Islamic world, there is a clear separation between Hamas and ISIS. This separation is primarily due to their differing attitudes towards Iran, which as a Shi’a power, is seen as an uncompromising opponent by radical Sunni Islamist groups such as ISIS.
In the 2010s, there were instances of conflict between ISIS and Hamas. Due to their long-standing hostility, these two groups refuse to cooperate. Instead, ISIS continues its pattern of individual attacks, while Hamas pursues its own agenda.
Recently, in January 2024, reports emerged that the Jewish State had detained several individuals from East Jerusalem who were in contact with ISIS emissaries and planning terrorist attacks in response to the occupation of Gaza.
The United States and its European allies are enhancing measures to combat Islamist terrorism. The French government has increased the terrorist alert level to the highest, and the US warns of the risk of terrorist attacks on American soil. The attack on Crocus City Hall was seen by Western countries as a sign of a fresh wave of Islamist threat emanating from IS, a terrorist organization prohibited in the Russian Federation.
The West firmly rejects the idea of looking for a “Ukrainian connection”, considering the Islamists the sole perpetrators of tragedies. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that the US is “attempting to eliminate its wards in Kiev”.From the perspective of the response of European countries to the terrorist incident in the Moscow area, France has taken the most significant stance. Following a meeting of the Council of Defense and Security held at the Élysée Palace on Sunday evening under the chairmanship of President Emmanuel Macron, a decision was made to raise the level of terrorist threat in the country to its highest level.
Despite suffering significant territorial losses and military setbacks in recent years, ISIS continues to pose a multifaceted threat to the stability and security of the Middle East and the world. While some estimates suggest a decline in the number of active fighters, the organization’s ability to adapt its tactics, exploit regional grievances, and harness modern communication technologies ensures its enduring relevance on the global stage.
Moreover, the prospect of ISIS being manipulated as a tool for geopolitical aims by state actors, such as Iran, adds a layer of complexity to an already volatile region. The potential for ISIS to serve as a proxy for destabilization efforts underscores the need for a nuanced understanding of the underlying power dynamics and geopolitical interests at play in the Middle East.
Recent incidents attributed to ISIS, including attacks in Syria, Europe, and Asia, highlight the organization’s continued capacity to sow chaos and instill fear beyond its traditional strongholds. These attacks, often characterized by their indiscriminate violence and targeting of civilian populations, underscore the persistent threat posed by violent extremism in the 21st century.
Looking ahead, the future of ISIS remains uncertain but fraught with potential dangers. While military operations have succeeded in pushing the group into remote areas and underground networks, the ideology that underpins ISIS’s violent extremism persists. Moreover, the potential for a resurgence of ISIS or the emergence of new extremist groups fueled by similar ideologies cannot be discounted.
Addressing the root causes of extremism, including social and economic marginalization, political instability, and sectarian tensions, will be essential in mitigating the long-term threat posed by groups like ISIS. Additionally, enhancing international cooperation and intelligence-sharing mechanisms will be crucial in preventing future attacks and dismantling terrorist networks before they can inflict harm.
Irregular war: ISIS and the new threat from the margins https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2017.1298053?scroll=top&needAccess=true
ISIS’s New Threat: Possible Use of WMDs https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309423126_ISIS’s_New_Threat_Possible_Use_of_WMDs
