The Turkish Soft Power in the Middle East
During the nineties, Turkey moved towards faster integration with the European Union by entering the customs union in 1995 and harmonizing its customs rates with the EU for all industrial goods except agricultural products, public procurement, and services. Joining the union gave Turkey significant trade privileges with the European Union. Furthermore, the European Council of 1999 marked a significant milestone as the EU recognized Turkey as a candidate on equal footing with other potential candidates. Turkey’s initiatives to commence membership negotiations with the European Union have caused frustration because there have been virtually no results.
As Turkey’s efforts to join the EU yielded limited results, its interest in the EU waned, and it began redirecting its foreign policy toward other regions. This strategic shift was driven by recognizing the world’s increasing multipolarity and opportunities. However, it’s important to note that the European Union remains a crucial economic partner for Turkey. In 2022, Turkey was the EU’s seventh-largest trade partner, export destination, and importer, with the EU serving as its primary import and export partner and a key source of investment, underscoring the economic significance of this relationship.
Moreover, Turkey ensured its energy security by scaling up energy arrangements with Russia. It becomes crucial for Turkey to serve as a transit point along critical routes, supplying Europe with Russian and Central Asian energy sources and gaining an economic profit. It is also a powerful political instrument in relations with the European Union.
Soft Power in Turkey’s Foreign Relations
Soft power, the central theme of this paper, is a form of influence that operates through attraction and persuasion, in stark contrast to the coercive nature of hard power. It seeks to shape the preferences of others through appeal and attraction rather than force. Soft power, a nuanced and multifaceted concept, is characterized by its non-coercive nature, with cultural elements, political values, and foreign policies serving as its currency. It encompasses a wide range of components and resources that contribute to a state’s ability to influence others, including political attitudes and beliefs, doctrines and ideals, the strategic consequences of policies, economic concerns, social values and cultural exports, diplomacy, and international relations, including soft diplomacy.
Therefore, considering the changed international status of Turkey, as well as the increased resources of soft power, the creators of the foreign policy of the Republic of Turkey increasingly tried to position their country as a global actor. According to the annual index released by Portland Communications and the USC Centre on Public Diplomacy in 2023, Turkey secured the 23rd position among the most influential soft power countries, sitting behind Singapore (21st) and Finland (22nd). Although Turkey’s score has grown, rising from 47.8 in 2022 to 50.4 this year, it dropped one position from last year’s index. The report highlighted Turkey as the most influential nation in the Middle East and Africa regarding government, education, economy, culture, engagement, and digital media.
Turkey actively pursued a dynamic foreign policy in the Middle East during the early 2000s. This proactive approach resulted in Turkey playing a crucial and prominent role in regional diplomacy, contributing to a favorable perception in the Middle East for various reasons such as:
1- Turkey engaged in successful mediation efforts in various conflicts, demonstrating its capacity as a neutral mediator. These efforts included mediating between Palestinian factions, facilitating indirect talks between Syria and Israel, and contributing to peace dialogues between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
2- Turkey’s engagement in the Lebanese conflict, its mediation efforts among various parties, and its deployment of troops to UNIFIL II underscored its dedication to promoting tranquility and stability in the region.
3- Turkey’s robust economy and political transformation served as an example for nations in the Middle East. Its success story was admired, especially when many countries in the region were grappling with stagnant economies and calls for political reforms.
4- Turkish dramas gained immense popularity within the Middle East, resonating with viewers and influencing cultural trends. This cultural exchange bolstered Turkey’s soft power within the region. Also, Arab tourists gathered in Turkey, boosting the country’s tourism industry. Economic ties between Turkey and Middle Eastern countries expanded, promoting economic cooperation.
During this period, Turkey’s active foreign policy, often called “zero problems with neighbors,” aimed to establish Turkey as a pivotal key player in the region with positive relations with neighboring countries. Although this strategy initially achieved success and garnered popularity in the Middle East, regional dynamics have since changed, leading to shifts and challenges in Turkey’s role and relationships in the subsequent years.
Although this strategy initially succeeded and gained popularity in the Middle East, regional dynamics have since changed, leading to changes and challenges in Turkey’s role and relations in the following years. In the early 2010s, Turkey pursued a foreign policy approach that emphasized its importance as a critical player in the Middle East with several aspects such as:
1- In 2010, President Erdogan received a prestigious award from the King of Saudi Arabia, Abdulaziz bin Abdulaziz, emphasizing Turkey’s critical role in the Middle East. This recognition reflected Turkey’s alignment with regional dynamics and growing influence in Middle Eastern affairs.
2- The declining importance of Arab nationalism in the region allowed Turkey to reestablish contacts with its Middle Eastern neighbors. The Turkish government has sought to position itself as a regional superpower with aspirations of influencing regional affairs.
The Importance of Turkey
Turkey’s geographical location indeed gives it both significant advantages and challenges. Its strategic position at a pivotal juncture of Europe, the Caucasus, and the Middle Eastern region offers various benefits and opportunities. Turkey is neither a strategic energy producer nor a strategic consumer. However, it is an important transit country with increasing future potential and importance. Turkey is also emerging as a critical partner in ensuring European energy security by transporting energy from producers near Turkey to Europe.
Turkey’s strategic location as a crucial transit country for energy resources presents a significant advantage. Turkey is a vital energy transit hub between resource-abundant areas in the Middle East, the Caspian Sea, and energy-consuming markets in Europe. It boasts pipelines and infrastructure capable of efficiently transporting oil and natural gas to European destinations. Key projects such as the “Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan”2 (BTC) oil pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor underscore Turkey’s pivotal role in facilitating energy transportation.
The location of the Republic of Turkey has security implications. It shares borders with countries facing political instability and conflicts. Managing these security challenges while preserving stability is crucial for its security and the wider region. Turkey’s geographical location has positioned it as a historical and cultural bridge connecting Europe and Asia, which has enriched its cultural heritage and contributed to its soft power, attracting tourists and fostering cultural exchanges. However, Turkey’s position also comes with risks and challenges like:
Turkey’s Foreign Policy Transition in the Early 21st Century
Disappointment with slow integration into the European Union has turned Turkey’s foreign policy in another direction. Despite facing domestic economic challenges, Ankara pursues an ambitious foreign policy initiative fueled by aspirations for Pan-Turkish influence stretching into Central Asia, a presence extending throughout North Africa and the Middle East. In principle, greater multipolarity in world international relations gives Turkey more room for maneuver as the US and European interests often diverge. Cold War rivalries have softened with the rise of non-state threats, and China has emerged as its pole of power. Turkey’s essential guideline for soft power is:
A balance between security and democracy, a ‘zero problem policy with Turkey’s neighbors,’ developing relations with neighboring regions and beyond, adherence to a multi-dimensional foreign policy, and rhythmic diplomacy. The principle behind this is that Turkey would link the Euro-Atlantic world to Islamic civilization.
Turkish soft power augments Turkey’s geo-economics prowess, extending its influence and positioning it as a regional finance, commerce, and energy hub. The economic aspect involves forging connections between the Middle East and Europe through trade, transportation, and energy initiatives. The commercial trade volumes currently attained, and the steady development of economic relations between Turkey and its surroundings bear witness to the geo-economics efficacy of efforts to turn Istanbul into a financial center of Eurasia as a whole, as evidenced by the Borsa Istanbul initiative and energy projects such as Trans-Anatolia, and South Flow.
The Syrian crisis played a pivotal role, as Syria became a focal point in Turkey’s revised foreign policy stance in the Middle East. Historically, Turkey had maintained exemplary relations with Syria, embodying the traditional approach of zero problems with neighbors. However, the Arab Spring and the Syrian crisis created an impression that Turkish foreign policy was taking a factional stance, resulting in strained relations with Syria. For Turkey today, zero problems with neighbors no longer apply, particularly in the Middle East.
Middle East and Turkey’s Soft Power
Throughout the latter half of the 20th century and into the 21st century, Turkey has progressively intensified its involvement with Middle Eastern nations, undertaken diplomatic initiatives, and assumed mediation roles in regional conflicts, reflecting the evolution of its foreign policy priorities. Furthermore, in Turkey’s case, the rhetoric of East and West has been matched by the rhetoric of Islam and democracy. As a result, the geographic coincidence of being in Europe and Asia has become fused with the historical circumstance of being both Muslim and democratic or both Muslim and secular.
The evolution of Turkey’s foreign policy, especially in the Middle East, has undergone substantial changes over the years. The shift from a primarily military-focused approach in the 90s of the last century to an emphasis on soft power and diplomacy at the beginning of the current century, coupled with the subsequent challenges posed by the Arab uprisings and regional conflicts, illustrates an intricate and dynamic trajectory. It is crucial to emphasize key points that might explain Turkey’s evolving foreign policy in the Middle East. In the 1990s, Turkey’s regional policy had a pronounced military focus. According to the Arab Barometer Wave II3, Middle Eastern societies perceived Turkey as a moderately democratic country, with a mean value of 8.4 on an 11-point scale, where 10 represents a democracy to the greatest extent possible.
Turkey’s new appearance can also be seen in relations with Tehran because Tehran and Ankara have at least one point of convergence of interests – Kurdistan. Independent Kurdistan does not suit Turkey or Iran, nor Iran’s ally in the region – Syria, because of the Kurdish minority living in the three countries and Iraq. The Kurdish Autonomous Region is the most peaceful part of Iraq, and the Kurds are the only Iraqi allies of the Anglo-American forces. They are an essential ally of the United States in a possible military conflict with Iran.
However, the Kurdish allies complicated and seriously tested the alliance between Washington and Ankara. Turkey has repeatedly stated that it could intervene in northern Iraq. With its growing energy needs, Turkey sees Kirkuk as a strategically important position in ensuring energy security. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which passes through Iraq and Turkey, symbolizes this partnership. However, the control and distribution of revenues from this pipeline have been disputed, especially when the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has tried to bypass Baghdad and export oil directly to Turkey. The Iraqi government has often characterized such actions as a threat to its sovereignty, leading to political disputes between Iraq and Turkey.
